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 The Next Prez? Osama
May Decide
By Dick Morris
More than any other single individual,
more than George W. Bush, more than John Kerry, it is Osama bin
Laden who will determine the winner of the election in November.
If Americans feel that they are
at war, they will rally to Bush. By a strong majority, they feel
that he is the best candidate to keep America safe, prosecute
the War on Terror, and - even on his worst days - stabilize Iraq.
But if they feel that the war is over or winding down, they are
likely to vote for Kerry. By similar majorities, most surveys
indicate that voters trust him more to create jobs, help the
economy, lower health-care costs, stabilize Medicare and Social
Security, reduce prescription drug prices, help improve education
and protect the environment.
So, the key issue is whether
America is at war or at peace. And Osama bin Laden has more to
say about that than any other person. If he ratchets up the terror
threat to the United States and has us looking over our shoulders
and thinking twice before we fly, we will feel at war and will
back Bush. But if he lets up and backs off for the election,
we will revert back to our peacetime posture and likely elect
the Democrat.
It is not unusual in Israeli
politics for the terrorists to hold the balance of power in the
election in their hands. In 1996, the pro-peace process Labor
Party led Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party until right before
the election. Then, a wave of terror bombings, unleashed by Hamas
and Hezbollah - likely with Yasser Arafat's blessings - torpedoed
the chances of the doves and elected the hard-liners instead.
The terrorists on the West Bank
have historically favored victories by the hard-liners in Israel
so that they can have a hate figure against whom to rally their
supporters. With a conciliatory leader in the West, they find
it difficult to attract supporters and funds, but with a tough
opponent, they can attract lots of support.
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Daryl Cagle,